Everything seemed to go wrong after dinner today. I lost 71% of my before dinner winnings. It went just as quickly as it had come.
Second to act I raised to $6 with pocket kings. The villain directly behind me re-raised to $12. I raised the pot again, $22. Villain flat called.
Villain is extremely loose pre-flop, playing most flops. Post-flop he was really beating me up with value-bets, until I figured out that he always bet big when bluffing.
The flop was 3JT. I bet $46 into the $68 pot, looking to get all in with three bets.
The villain jumped ahead and went all-in right away, a $230 raise into what was now a $160 pot.
What hands beat me? 33, JJ, TT, JT, AA. While he may have reraised preflop with JJ, I really don’t think he’d have done it with TT or 33. (I know there isn’t much difference between JJ and TT, but there is a huge psychological difference. Jacks are picture cards. People are more likely to treat them like a big pocket pair instead of a middle pocket pair.)
I also don’t think he would be making this raise with AA. It’s an over-bet for JT too.
The over-bet said flush draw to me. Flush draw, plus over cards, or a pair. I had the K and the J was on the board so that made this a little less likely. AQ or A were the reasonable possibilities.
But this guy was unreasonable, he could have a lot of other diamond draws. He could have been over playing QQ. Or he may have 88 or 99 and be looking to push me off overcards (AK or AQ) and / or bluff me off an over-pair (QQ+).
I made the call, but I was going to be very upset if I was wrong. Villain had 87 for a flush draw and gut-shot. I was right, but he hit the flush on the river and I was still upset.
His flop play was not too ridiculous. I’m not beyond playing that hands similarly. He figures he has 12 outs so it’s an even money if he’s called, and there is a good chance he won’t be.
Re-raising preflop was 78s is very curious.